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30 minutes
High School - College
131 classes this year
Subjects: AP Economics Economics
Topics: Business Cycle Economic Fluctuations Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Potential output is an estimate of what the economy could produce. Actual output is what the economy does produce. If actual is below potential a negative output gap there is “slack” in the economy. If actual is above potential—a positive output gap—resources are fully employed, or perhaps overutilized. This issue of Page One Economics® explains how the output gap is useful for checking the health of the economy. It also points out how errors in the estimation of potential real GDP can reduce the effectiveness of policy.

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Content Standard 18: Economic Fluctuations

Grade 8 Benchmarks

1. GDP is a basic measure of a nation’s economic output and income. It is the total market value, measured in dollars, of all final goods and services produced in the economy in one year.

7. A recession occurs when overall levels of income and employment decline.

Grade 12 Benchmarks

1. An increase in nominal GDP may reflect increases in the production of goods and services and also increases in prices. GDP adjusted for price changes is “real GDP.” Real GDP per capita is a basis for comparing material living standards over time and among different countries.

2. The potential level of real GDP for a nation is determined by such things as the size and skills of its labor force, the size and quality of its stock of capital goods, the quantity and quality of its natural resources, its technological capabilities, and its legal and cultural institutions.

3. A business cycle involves fluctuations of real GDP around its potential level.

4. Fluctuations of real GDP around its potential level occur when overall spending declines, as in a recession, or when overall spending increases rapidly, as in recovery from a recession or in an expansion.

5. When real GDP rises above its potential, there is a tendency for inflation to rise. When real GDP is below its potential (as in a recession), there is a tendency for inflation to fall.


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